Webmedcentral - Pancreatology ArticlesThe Pancreatology articles published by Webmedcentral
http://www.webmedcentral.com
2024-03-29T13:32:36+01:00webmedcentral logo
http://www.webmedcentral.com/
http://www.webmedcentral.com/images/Header_Logo.giftext/html2012-01-25T19:56:28+01:00http://www.webmedcentral.com/Dr. Petar JordanovPredictors of Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Study
http://www.webmedcentral.com/article_view/2925
Background: The aim of this retrospective study was to identify the association of the routinely examined laboratory indices, such as blood urea nitrogen (BUN), serum creatinine, blood glucose, leucocytes, hematocrit and the Glasgow scoring scale with mortality in acute pancreatitis patients.Methods: This study included 271 patients with acute pancreatitis. All patients were consecutively admitted to the Second Surgery of the Pirogov Emergency Hospital from June 2000 to November 2008.Patients were divided into two groups: survivors (242) and deceased (29); for all patients, the routine laboratory parameters were determined during the first 24 hours of hospital admission.All data were processed by the SPSS 11.0.1 software package for Windows.Results: Non-survivors demonstrated higher BUN (P < 0.0001), serum creatinine (P < 0.0001), serum glucose (P =0.031), leucocytes (P =0.008), hematocrit (P=0.05) and Glasgow scoring scale (P < 0.0001) values, as compared to the survivor group values. The highest area under the curve (AUC) was observed for BUN (AUC=0.816, 95% CI 0.738-0.894), followed by the AUC for serum creatinine (AUC=0.798, 95% CI 0.700-0.897) and for Glasgow scores (AUC=0.744, 95%CI 0.638-0.850).We established a statistically significant association between BUN ≥ 7.4mmol/l and mortality (odds ratio =10.018, 95% CI 3.892-25.788, P < 0.0001), between serum creatinine ≥ 107µmol/l and mortality (odds ratio=9.772, 95%CI 3.806-25.087, P < 0.0001) and between Glasgow score ≥ 2 and mortality (odds ratio=5.090, 95%CI 2.161-11.990, P < 0.0001).Conclusion: In a retrospective study, BUN, serum creatinine and the Glasgow scoring scale were the three parameters that demonstrated the highest association with mortality in acute pancreatitis.Borderline and/or slightly elevated levels of BUN and of serum creatinine upon admission to the hospital may predict the course of the disease in patients with acute pancreatitis.